Round 8 Preview

Kemblawarra Fury consolidated its lead at the top of the Illawarra Mercury Premier League last week, drawing five points clear after Round 7 as its nearest rivals both dropped points. Last season’s Grand Final Champions Wollongong United showed they were back at their best by beating Bulli in Round 7. And plucky Picton Rangers kept themselves in touch with the leaders thanks to a late equaliser at Woonona.

At the bottom, South Coast United are now three points adrift after yet another home defeat in Round 7. They have a big bottom-of-the-table clash this weekend…

Match of the round

Tarrawanna Blueys v Wollongong Olympic @ Tarrawanna Oval – kick-off 2.30pm, Saturday 14 May

A few weeks ago, all eyes on this fixture would have been watching Wandi Jajaw, to see how Tarrawana’s top scorer from last season fares against his old team-mates. But Jajaw’s fellow striker at Olympic, Yusuke Ueda has rather taken the limelight in 2016. His hat-trick in last week’s emphatic 5-1 win over Albion Park makes him joint top scorer in this season’s Premier League, with seven goals in total.

But the Blueys know where the goal is, too. They are the IPL’s equal top scorers with 19 goals in the first seven Rounds, Darren Stone and Rick Goodchild picking up six goals apiece so far this term.

Olympic are one of the hardest sides to predict, putting in a brilliant performance one week and looking lacklustre the next. That’s why they are in sixth place in the ladder at this point rather than up there challenging the Fury at the top.

The Blueys seem to have got over last season’s problem where they performed consistently badly against other top teams. They lost both fixtures against Olympic 3-2 in 2015. That might happen again this weekend, but my hunch is that the Blueys have the psychological edge this season, so they’re my tip for the three points this time round.

Other games on Saturday 14 May

Bulli FC v Port Kembla FC @ Balls Paddock - kick-off 2.30pm

A glance at the IPL Ladder would point to a guaranteed three points for the home side in this one, but recent form suggests this could be a tight match.

If you include the FFA Cup defeat at the hands of Wollongong Wolves, Bulli have not had a win in their last three games. Last week’s defeat at the hands of Wollongong United might be their first IPL loss of the season, but it has left them five points behind the Fury at the top and looking over their shoulders at the chasing pack. So this is a crucial fixture for the boys in blue to get their season back on track.

It won’t be easy, though, against a resurgent Port Kembla side, who may still languish in the bottom three, but have shown in recent weeks that they know where the opponents’ net is. After scoring just once in their opening four matches, Port have now bagged eleven goals in their last three, with new boy Sandy Lowcock back on the scoresheet in last week’s thrilling drawn against Tarrawanna.

I predict Bulli to lift themselves for the three points, but it won’t be easy.

Woonona FC v South Coast United @ Ocean Park – kick-off 2.30pm

Woonona were looking good for three points against high-flying Picton last week, until the Rangers came back with a last minute equaliser. Coach Brendan Anderson will have taken as many positives from the performance as from the result, giving his side an important fillip going into this big six-pointer between the IPL’s bottom two sides.

It was another miserable afternoon for South Coast United at home last week, with their third home defeat from three. United achieved their best result of the season last time they were on the road, though, with a hard-earned draw at Bulli, so Greg Valic will be hoping his side go one better at Woonona. It will take a win by four goals or more to see South Coast off the bottom. But it’s hard to see that happening.

Defence has been South Coast’s weakest area this season, with 24 goals leaked in the first seven matches. Last season, this fixture ended 1-0 to Woonona, and that’s my prediction for 2016, too.

Albion Park White Eagles v Shell Cove FC @ Terry Reserve – kick-off 3.00pm

Few would have predicted at the start of the season that Shell Cove would go into this fixture ahead of Albion Park in the IPL Ladder. Both sides have been playing attractive football this season, though, so this is an intriguing tie that could go either way.

The White Eagles were missing their injured playmaker and goal scorer Shohei Okuno last week when they crumbled 5-1 at Wollongong Olympic. Even more worrying for coach Jeff Allport is the way their normally solid defence has been leaking goals lately, with last week’s defeat coming on the back of four let in against the Fury and five more at the hands of Blacktown Spartans in the FFA Cup.

How much space they give to the likes of Daniel Vellonio (who scored again last week) and Jordan Hassiem could determine the outcome this week.

The White Eagles need the points more than Shell Cove. If they have the hunger for it, I predict a narrow home win in this one.

Sunday 15 May

Cringila Lions v Wollongong United @ Crehan Park – kick-off 2.30pm

Wollongong United didn’t manage to pierce the Cringila defence once in 180 minutes of IPL football between these two sides in 2015. In fact the Lions took four points from the two matches against United last season and won the corresponding fixture 1-0.

The Lions go into this tie with their tails up after a useful win at South Coast United last weekend. Daniel Atkins notched his fourth goal of the season in that win, and the Lions welcomed back Christian Cevenini from injury. United need to keep an eye on the pair just behind the front two, though, as Esali Ali and Mikal Awad continue to create most of the Cringila chances.

2016 has not seen Wollongong United at their most consistent, but last week’s emphatic win over Bulli suggests they are getting back to their best.

The problem for Cringila is knowing where the greatest threat comes from. United get their goals from across the park, with Karouna Michael, Ben Brooks, Jonny Martinoski, Matt Floro and Jinya An sharing the spoils this season, until substitute Klime Sekutkoski added his name to the mix last weekend.

I predict United to win this week by a single goal.

Kemblawarra Fury v Picton Rangers @ Albert Butler Memorial Park – kick-off 2.30pm

Since drawing the opening fixture against Bulli, the Fury have won six on the bounce. Picton may have been performing well in 2016, with their win over Grand Final Champions Wollongong United the pick of their victories so far, but this is surely going to be their hardest test yet, up against the ladder leaders.

With his two goals in last week’s win at Shell Cove, Robbie Shields gave a hint that he hasn’t given up on winning back the Golden Boot award in 2016. That took his season tally to five, just two behind teammate Matthew McNab.

The problem for Picton is that the Fury have now really started performing well as a unit, in spite of an injury list that has forced many changes to the makeup of their back four in particular.

Picton’s persistence paid off last week with the last-gasp equaliser at Woonona. They might need a point from this one to keep their top five slot at the end of Round 8. But it’s hard to see them resisting the Fury onslaught, so they may be looking at results elsewhere to stay in fifth.

My prediction: Fury by two.

 

By Simon Duffin

Photo by Pedro Garcia (Library archive)