Round 11 Preview

We have a change of leadership in the Illawarra Mercury Premier League after Round 10, as Bulli’s third win on the bounce has seen them overtake a stuttering Kemblawarra Fury on goal difference, having made up a five point deficit in two weeks.

It’s a demonstration of how tight things are this season that four of the six matches in Round 10 finished in draws, and there are more fixtures this coming weekend that look too close to call.

The IPL also returns to the WIN Stadium on Sunday, with another curtain-raiser for the Wollongong Wolves. South Coast United and Wollongong Olympic make their bows on the centre stage this weekend, and that is my chosen Match of the Round.

Match of the round

South Coast United v Wollongong Olympic @ WIN Stadium – kick-off 1.00pm, Sunday 5 June

On paper, 11^th place against 4^th doesn’t read like a Match of the Round, but the luck of the draw sees the Premier League’s two in-form sides go head to head at the region’s prestige venue. It’s a while since either of these two lost, and until last weekend’s draws for both sides, they were both on winning runs.

The turn around in South Coast’s season has seen them off the bottom of the ladder, where they looked condemned to stay just a few weeks ago. Greg Valic seems to have steadied his defensive ship, maybe by bringing himself back into the back four line-up. And in Liam Unicomb, United have a forward who is always likely to score: With six goals in his last seven matches, Unicomb is hot on the heels of the IPL’s leading goal scorers for 2016.

Unbeaten in four, Olympic have now risen to 4^th in the ladder, and have not conceded in over 270 minutes of IPL football. In Yusuke Ueda, they have one of the IPL’s top scorers too, although Ja Kon Wu has been getting his name on the scoresheet more in recent weeks.

South Coast United won both home and away fixtures against Olympic in 2015, with Unicomb scoring in both matches. It’s hard to bet against him doing the same in 2016, especially as he will relish the space he’ll have to run into on the WIN Stadium’s wide pitch.

But I think the 2016 Olympic side are just a bit stronger than the 2015 vintage and I fancy them to hold on this year for a draw in this one, even with Isaac Lee suspended.

Fixtures on Saturday 4 June

Bulli FC v Woonona FC @ Balls Paddock - kick-off 2.30pm

When top played bottom a couple of weeks ago, we had one of the surprises of the season when South Coast United beat Kemblawarra Fury. The Fury lapse let Bulli in to retake top spot, and they now come up against the new bottom club, Woonona.

Bulli are on a winning streak of three on the bounce, and Woonona haven’t won since Round 1, so everything points to three points for the home side in this one.

Last week, I reminded readers of Bulli’s 0-8 win at Cringila in 2015 and said they would not repeat that in 2016. At 0-5 after the first hour of play, it looked as if Bulli might indeed score eight again in 2016, but Cringila somehow stemmed the tide. This is another bad omen for Woonona, who lost this tie 6-0 in 2015, with Ben McDonald knocking in four that day.

McDonald is due a few goals, having missed out last week, while Dylan Lewis and Julian Minutillo took over the lead in Bulli’s race for goals.

Woonona have struggled to find the net this year, scoring only 10 goals in 10 rounds so far. They will take heart from a plucky display against a resurgent Port Kembla last week, but this is a tough match and I’ll be surprised if they come away from Balls Paddock with anything this time around.

Cringila Lions v Tarrawanna Blueys @ Crehan Park – kick-off 2.30pm

Both these sides are on a losing run. For the Blueys, it has cost them their top five slot; for Cringila, the size of recent defeats has seen them with the worst goal difference in the League and now by far the leakiest defence. The fantastic win over Wollongong United a few weeks ago must feel like an age away.

That said, both sides are capable of attractive football and have shown marked improvement over their performances in 2015.

The Lions have the creative talent to do damage to most teams in the league, but have shown desperate frailties in defence in recent weeks. This could be a good time for them to come up against Tarrawanna. The Blueys were the IPL’s top scorers a few weeks back, but have been struggling to find the net lately.

Darren Stone was sorely missed for the Blueys last weekend; he’s still one of their top scorers this season (with Rick Goodchild) and he scored in the equivalent fixture last season. I’m going for a repeat of last season’s draw here, unless Stone returns, in which case the Blueys might just nick the three points.

Picton Rangers v Shell Cove @ Hume Oval – kick-off 2.30pm

Picton Rangers haven’t won in four matches, but edged back into the top five thanks to Tarrawanna’s latest defeat. Shell Cove, on the other hand, ended a three game losing streak with that surprise 0-1 win at Tarrawanna Oval last weekend.

Both sides have been doing much better than many expected before the season started. The three points deducted from Shell Cove’s tally for the season does not at this stage affect their position in the ladder, though it does leave them further adrift of the top five slot all teams seek as the way into the end-of-season finals.

The danger for Shell Cove can come from anywhere across the park, given that nine of the Picton regulars have found the net in 2016 so far, and that doesn’t include returnee Nicholas Mugridge or new signing Matt Tesoriero. But Shell Cove have their own playmakers in Kurdvan Abduljabbar, who scored again last week, and Daniel Vellonio, who is surely due another goal again soon.

This will be tight but I fancy Picton to prevail on their home turf.

Wollongong United v Albion Park White Eagles @ Macedonia Park – kick-off 2.30pm

If these two sides play at their best, this will be the tie of the round. But neither team has been consistent this season.

Wollongong United sit in third spot in the ladder in spite of not really firing on all cylinders so far in 2016, and of course there is still the appeal process to go through over the potential points deduction which could see them nearer the foot of the table than the top.

In drawing at the Fury last weekend, though, United showed that they are at least equal to the best in the IPL. And they’re another side that spreads the goal haul among many of the squad rather than having one or two target men up front. Last weekend it was Klime Sekutkoski who found the net, the week before Karouna Michael, but even defender Ben Brooks has been getting in on the goal action in 2016.

But the White Eagles have weapons of their own. Shohei Okuno is one of the IPL’s top scorers, but he is hyper active across the park and makes as many as he scores. His compatriot Kotaro Higashi got among the goals a few weeks back, and even defender Peter Prandalos is getting forward these days, scoring once this season, and providing the assist last weekend.

Last season this match ended 2-1 to United. I predict the same scoreline this season too.

Other game on Sunday 5 June

Port Kembla FC v Kemblawarra Fury @ Wetherall Park – kick-off 2.30pm

The Fury’s hard-fought draw with Wollongong United last week saw them relinquish top spot in the IPL ladder. Coming after the shock defeat to South Coast United, this makes something of a lean spell for the Fury, who had previously won seven games on the bounce.

They will not want to lose any more ground to Bulli this week and their rivals have an easier fixture than this one on paper, so Kemblawarra will come into this game looking for three points.

There’s a positive vibe around Wetherall Park at the moment, though, by all accounts. Port might sit still in the bottom three, but nobody has scored more than them at home this season. They’ve notched 16 goals in the previous five fixtures at Wetherall Park and if new boy Sandy Lowcock is on song, this could be a busy afternoon for the Fury back four.

Port captain Peter Richardson leads his team from the back, and he’ll be needing his wits about him to deal with the twin threat of Robbie Shields and Matthew McNab. Having said that, Richardson himself scored Port’s only goal last weekend, and the Shields/McNab duo have failed to score in the last two matches, so this is really becoming a hard one to predict.

I’ll have to sit on the fence and call this one a draw.