Round 13 Preview

It’s a busy week ahead for all twelve of the Illawarra Mercury Premier League sides, with the scheduled Round 13 games and then catch-up matches from the washed out Round 11 to follow. For Picton Rangers and Shell Cove, that makes for a double header weekend with games on both Saturday and Sunday. The other teams get a couple of days’ rest before the Round 11 catch-ups on Tuesday or Wednesday.

With the ladder starting to separate into two sections – one a fight to avoid relegation, and the other a battle for the title and top five finals slots – Round 13 sees an intriguing set of ties. Four of the six matches have teams from the bottom up against teams at the top – if the results go to form, that split will become even more apparent. If there are surprises – and it won’t be the first time this season – that split could be more blurred again.

Match of the round

Albion Park White Eagles v Bulli FC @ Terry Reserve – kick-off 3.00pm, Sunday 19 June

Two of last season’s top five sides go head-to-head in the Round 13 Match of the Round. The White Eagles’ season has been up and down, but last week’s win at Port Kembla has taken them back to the verge of the finals slots in sixth. They’ll be looking for a result here to keep up that challenge.

Bulli, meanwhile, may need three points from every game to keep the Fury at bay and maintain their slender lead in the ladder.

Bulli won the reverse fixture, but it was tight at 2-1 back in March. Dylan Lewis scored for Bulli that day and he now leads the race for the IPL Golden Boot, with nine goals to his name. But the White Eagles’ scorer in Round 2 was Shohei Okuno, who scored again last week and now has eight goals for 2016.

If the two teams’ goal tally is virtually equal, their defensive records are not! Bulli has let in only one goal a game in the first 11 ties, while the White Eagles have conceded 20.

This is only Albion Park’s fourth home match this season, partly due to the Terry Reserve playing surface being re-laid, so it’s hard to judge their home form still. I think this will be a tight game, though, so I’m going to go with a draw.

Saturday 18 June

Picton Rangers v South Coast United@ Hume Oval – kick-off 2.30pm

Two of the Illawarra Premier League’s battlers take each other on at Hume Oval on Saturday.

Picton have punched above their weight all season and scored yet another handy win last weekend at Tarrawanna. They stand in fourth spot going into Round 13, but there’s no let-up in the race for top five spots as they are still only two points ahead of sixth in spite of consistent results all year.

Since the opening day of the season, Picton have only lost to the IPL’s top two sides so this is a tough one for South Coast United.

The positives for the visitors here this weekend are that unlike in 2015, Picton are performing better on the road than they have been at Hume Oval. And of course, South Coast have turned their own season around since the 2-3 home defeat in Round 2.

United are now in eighth spot, unbeaten in four league matches, and with a target man Liam Unicomb who has scored seven in as many matches. There’s a positive vibe around South Coast at the moment that may well lift them for another victory this weekend – that’s my prediction, but Picton have proved a few pundits wrong already this season so I wouldn’t bet my house on it.

Shell Cove v Wollongong United @ Barrack Heights - kick-off 2.30pm

Wollongong United may be reigning Grand Final Champions, but they have yet to win on the road this season in the Premier League. This is surely their best opportunity to break that duck, as they come up against a Shell Cove side who have lost four of their last five matches and have seen early promise slip.

Karouna Michael, Matt Floro and Ben Brooks scored in the 4-0 win for United in the reverse fixture. But these are the two teams in the IPL with the widest range of scorers across the squads and no clear top marksman to watch out for.

In last week’s defeat at South Coast, Jonathan Barzel looked the most dangerous player behind the front line for Shell Cove, while Alexander Crane had an exceptional game in defence.

Shell Cove need the points as they risk slipping into the relegation fight, but so do United, especially with their appeal against points deduction still in the pipeline.

United’s form has been up and down all season, but I predict them to be too strong for Shell Cove this time. United to win by two.

Wollongong Olympic v Port Kembla @ PCYC – kick-off 2.30pm

Port Kembla just pipped Olympic for a Finals berth in 2015, but since then the sides’ fortunes could hardly have taken more varied paths.

Olympic’s win at Wollongong United last week was their fourth in five IPL matches and has launched them up to third spot chasing the leaders. Olympic have become a very tough team to score against, conceding only two goals in their last five games.

A few weeks ago Port were having their own problems in front of goal, but that was before Youth Grader Sandy Lowcock emerged onto the IPL scene (eight goals now) and now Joe Lavalle is knocking them in regularly too (five goals to his name for 2016).

Last week’s results have left Port Kembla in eleventh spot, only one point above the bottom. Coach Stuart Beedie has acknowledged his side are in the midst of a relegation fight now in 2016.

I’m going to stick my neck out and go for Port Kembla to take revenge for their 0-3 defeat in Round 2 and take the away win here. After all, I did call Olympic my Jekyll & Hyde side a few Rounds ago and we haven’t seen My Hyde for a while…

 

Woonona FC v Tarrawanna Blueys @ Ocean Park – kick-off 2.30pm

Dropping to the bottom of the ladder seems to have spurred Woonona into better performances. They completed a season double over Cringila with last week’s win at Crehan Park, though the Lions remain the only team they have tamed this season so far.

Woonona will be looking to kick on from that win and take themselves off the bottom now. If they are to achieve that aim, this Round 13 home game night be the best opportunity as the next game is away at ladder leaders Bulli.

Tarrawanna have been tumbling in recent weeks, falling from second to seventh in the ladder, with their fourth straight loss last weekend.

After a flying start with goals aplenty, the Blueys’ goal rush has petered out (only one scored in four IPL matches). Even new signing Bradley Welch has failed to hit the target in two starts so far. The eleven goals Tarrawanna put past Woonona in the two 2015 matches must seem a distant dream now.

Having said that, there is so much talent in the Tarrawanna squad and the Blueys seem to be getting better results on the road this year than at Tarrawanna Oval. So, I’m going for an away win here, though a Sharks victory might even pull Tarrawanna into the relegation fight.

 

Other fixtures on Sunday 19 June

Cringila Lions v Kemblawarra Fury @ Crehan Park – kick-off 2.30pm

When the Premier League’s top scoring team travels to the League’s leakiest defenders, everything points to a goal rush and three points for the Fury here.

But the Lions put up a brave fight when they visited Albert Butler Park in Round 2 and very nearly nicked a point with a battling performance that day. The Fury might argue that they got complacent ahead of that game, but there have been a couple of other upsets since then and the visitors here haven’t won in three matches, so they’ll be looking for a win to keep in touch with Bulli at the top.

Alvin Ceccoli, Sam Munro and Cameron Morgan scored when the Fury in their previous guise won at Crehan Park 0-6 in 2015. Those three are all looking as dangerous in 2016, not to mention Fury top scorers Robbie Shields and Matthew McNab.

It’s a lot for any defence to handle, but especially one that has let in 16 goals in its last four matches. Cringila are capable of an upset but I have to go with an away win by two goals this time.

Round 11 Catch-up

Picton Rangers v Shell Cove FC @ Hume Oval – kick-off 2.30pm

Two games in two days will always test the stamina and depth of any squad. The advantage for Picton is that both matches at the weekend are at home, so they have less travelling to do. The pitch might be a factor, though, given the floods in the area that put Hume Oval out of action for a few weeks.

Both sides need the points, with Picton attempting to hold on to their top five slot, while Shell Cove want to keep spaces between them and the relegation spot.

If Shell Cove’s young talent can get their tails up, they could cause a shock and take this one, but it’s a real test of character for Paul Carter’s squad, especially if they lose again on Saturday.

I’m going for the home win still here, but Saturday’s results may well have a bearing on how these two play – not to mention on which squad has the depth to take 180 minutes of football in little over 24 hours.

 

Further Round 11 Catch-ups

Tuesday 21 June

Wollongong United v Albion Park White Eagles – Macedonia Park 8pm –

Port Kembla v Kemblawarra Fury – Wetherall Park 8pm

South Coast United v Wollongong Olympic – Ian McLellan Park 8.15pm

 

Wednesday 22 June

Bulli v Woonona – Balls Paddock 8pm

Cringila Lions v Tarrawanna Blueys – Crehan Park 8pm

 

Report by Simon Duffin

Photo courtesy Pedro Garcia (archive)