Round 14 Preview

At one point during last Sunday’s rain-drenched fixtures, Bulli had a two goal cushion at Albion Park and Kemblawarra Fury were being held by Cringila. Bulli went on to concede three goals, while the Fury put another five past the hapless Lions, completely turning the table around and giving the Fury a clear lead on points for the first time in several weeks.

Other results in Round 13 served to emphasise the growing split in the Illawarra Mercury Premier League ladder between the top and bottom half, with the bottom five clubs starting to lose sight of those above them. After last night’s catch-up matches from Round 11, there is now an eight point gap.

With half the Round 11 matches washed out again this week, we have an uneven number of matches played among the twelve IPL sides for the first time this season. But even with those games in hand, not to mention points deductions, distorting things slightly, we have three clear battles: for the overall title, for the other top five slots and to stave off relegation.

Match of the round

Bulli FC v Wollongong Olympic@ Balls Paddock – kick-off 2.30pm, Saturday 25 June

It’s second v third in the Round’s top fixture this weekend.

Bulli’s late collapse at Albion Park last weekend meant they not only relinquished the leadership of the ladder, but they also handed over to this weekend’s opponents the mantle of best defence in the league. Olympic’s 0-0 draw last week may have left them vulnerable to the teams below them but a fourth clean sheet in five matches confirms Rob Birkin’s outfit as the stingiest in defence in the IPL.

Dylan Lewis and Ben McDonald appeared to set Bulli on the way to victory last weekend and they’ve now notched up seventeen goals between them in IPL matches. Surely if any front line is to pierce the Olympic defence, it has to be this one.

Last season Bulli ran out winners in both ties between these two sides and they appeared to have the measure of Olympic in the reverse fixture back in April. It will be interesting to see if Olympic’s improvement overall extends to matches against the IPL’s best. Win it and Olympic could be challenging Bulli for second slot; lose it and they could drop out of the top five.

I think this will be tight but I’m going for a home win by one or two.

Friday 24 June

Port Kembla v Shell Cove@ Wetherall Park – kick-off 8.00pm

Shell Cove are having a torrid time at the moment, with last weekend’s 5-2 home defeat by Wollongong United their fifth loss in six IPL matches. And a further points deduction for FSC breaches leaves them propping up the IPL ladder going in to Round 14.

Shell Cove have the ability to score from anywhere on the park and have the nine goalscorers in their squad to prove that, but losing can also become a habit, and Paul Carter will want to stop the rot here at Wetherall Park.

Port Kembla’s season shows signs of slowing coming together. They have run two of the IPL’s top sides very close in the last seven days, so although they only took one point from those two matches, there are positives for Stuart Beedie’s team. Port won this fixture 3-1 in 2015 and I’m predicting a similar scoreline this time around.

Other matches on Saturday 25 June

Tarrawanna Blueys v South Coast United @ Tarrawanna Oval - kick-off 2.30pm

The Blueys did the double over South Coast United in 2015, winning the equivalent fixture 3-0. But 2016 has been a very different season for both these clubs so far.

South Coast’s disastrous start to the 2016 season began to shift when they drew in Round 6 at Bulli. Since then they have climbed from rock bottom to a more respectable eighth.

Tarrawanna’s fantastic start switched in Round 8 when the Blueys began a losing streak of four matches, but they managed to put an end to that bad run last weekend with victory over Woonona, and followed that up with a sparkling 5-0 win at Cringila on Wednesday.

New boys Sang Yu Park and Bradley Welch both scored in the victory over Woonona and Park scored again in midweek, but most encouraging for coach Peter Willis is that six or seven different players have got in amongst the goals in these last two matches.

Tarrawanna have struggled at home this season and haven’t even found the net at Tarrawanna Oval since Round 4, so the big question is whether they can translate their rediscovered goalscoring touch and bring it home for this tie.

This match could go either way, so I’m plumping for a draw.

Wollongong United v Picton Rangers @ Macedonia Park – kick-off 2.30pm

This is the second tie of the weekend pitching two teams from the top five up against each other. Picton took the points when these two met in Round 3, coming from behind to win 2-1 with Daniel Goodhew scoring the winner in time added on.

So United will be out for revenge this weekend, and will be buoyed by their performance in winning 2-5 at Shell Cove last time out.

Jin Ya An and Jonny Martinoski got a brace each last week and are now United’s top scorers at five goals apiece, but as I’ve mentioned before in these previews, United have as many as seven scorers across the squad so the dangers lie all over the park for Picton.

The Picton machine just keeps on running, though, with another 1-0 win last weekend against the improved South Coast outfit. It’s getting very tight for those minor placings in the top five so neither of these two will be wanting to drop points, but I have to go for a home win for United, reversing that 2-1 defeat from earlier in the season.

Woonona FC v Kemblawarra Fury @ Ocean Park – kick-off 2.30pm

The Fury goal machine really got into action in the rain last Sunday and Robbie Shields showed he wants that Golden Boot back in 2016, with a hat-trick taking him to eleven IPL goals so far this term.

Matthew McNab is not far behind, though, nabbing his ninth of the season against Port Kembla in midweek. This is likely to be a busy afternoon for Woonona’s defence.

The Sharks will not want reminding that they lost to the Fury’s previous formation 0-8 last season. Most alarmingly for Woonona, four of the Fury scorers that day are still playing in the team’s new colours: Sam Munro, David Hartas, Cameron Morgan and Fabian Iacovelli.

Woonona have shown signs of improvement lately, but apart from a draw at Picton, they have only managed to pick up points against teams struggling with them at the foot of the table. They did well in midweek limiting Bulli to just one solitary goal, but this is surely too hard a mountain to climb. Twice this season, though, bottom has beaten top, so the Fury mustn’t be complacent.

But my tip is: away win by two.

Albion Park White Eagles v Cringila Lions @ Terry Reserve – kick-off 3.00pm

Whenever a match appears to be banker win either way, the IPL somehow manages to surprise us this season. With the White Eagles flying in recent weeks, beating Bulli in magnificent fashion last weekend, and out-doing the Fury in a Bampton Cup penalty shoot-out, they must surely be favourites to take the three points against a Cringila side that can’t seem to stop the goals against column rising fast.

The Lions are capable of springing surprises, but they collapsed in the mud last week at home to the Fury and again on Wednesday night at home to Tarrawanna. They have now conceded an extraordinary 25 goals in their last five matches.

Shohei Okuno is still the biggest threat for the White Eagles, up at nine IPL goals for this season now, but they showed how they don’t depend on him, with three other names on the scoresheet against Bulli.

Daniel Atkins scored his sixth of the season when Cringila were still holding on against the Fury last week and the Lions must be hoping he’ll be back for this match after missing midweek. But it’s defensively where they are showing their weakness. The White Eagles did the double over the Lions in 2015 and won this fixture 3-0. I predict a similar outcome in 2016.

By Simon Duffin

Photo: Pedro Garcia (Library Archive)