Round 15 Preview

The shocks just keep on coming in this season’s Illawarra Mercury Premier League. Last week’s win for Woonona over Kemblawarra Fury is the third time in 14 rounds that bottom has beaten top.

There is now a ten point gap between Picton in seventh and Port Kembla in eighth, so the IPL has almost become a competition with two divisions within the one ladder.

Last week’s results tightened all the different races going on now: Just two points separate the top two in the race for the title; just two points then separate the five teams now fighting for the remaining three Finals berths; and only three points separate Port Kembla in eighth from bottom side Shell Cove. So, it’s all to play for in every squad as we move into Round 15.

Match of the round

Kemblawarra Fury v Tarrawanna Blueys@ Albert Butler Memorial Park – kick-off 3.00pm, Sunday 3 July

It’s an interesting time for these two sides to meet. Fury may be top of the ladder, but they will have been stunned by their defeat to Woonona last weekend. The Blueys, meanwhile, seem to have put aside their own run of poor results, stringing together three wins on the bounce now to propel them back up to third in the ladder.

On paper this has the potential to be an entertaining affair with lots of goal scoring ability on both sides.

The Fury may have drawn a blank against the Sharks last week, but they are still the IPL’s top scorers over the season and have actually knocked in four on each of the last three occasions they have played the Blueys in the league (if you include their former guise as Dapto Dandaloo Fury).

In the 4-2 win for the Fury in the reverse fixture earlier this season, the Blueys’ two top scorers made the scoresheet (Rick Goodchild and Darren Stone), while the same can be said for the Fury’s main marksmen, Robbie Shields and Matthew McNab.

With 11 goals to his name, Shields is still the IPL’s leading scorer in 2016.

There will surely be goals in this tie and I predict the Fury to bounce back from Round 14 defeat to take the three points this week.

Saturday 2 July

Picton Rangers v Port Kembla @ Hume Oval – kick-off 2.30pm

Port Kembla will be looking for revenge for the 1-0 defeat they suffered against Picton at Wetherall Park back in April. There are signs that there is more fight in Stuart Beedie’s side than there was in the early rounds of this season, and they did well to come back from two goals down against Shell Cove last week.

Picton will be a tough nut to crack, though. The Rangers will be looking to regain their top five slot and they need a win to maintain that challenge at the top.

Picton did well even in defeat last week, falling to a single goal at Macedonia Park against a useful Wollongong United side. They’ve been struggling to find the net recently, though, and their total goals haul is no better than bottom side Shell Cove. It’s in defence that Picton have shown their strength this season, so the big question is whether Port’s front pair can find a way through.

Although it doesn’t suit either team here, I predict a draw in this one, possibly even goalless.

Shell Cove v Bulli FC @ Barrack Heights Sportsfield - kick-off 2.30pm

Bulli gave up home advantage for the reverse fixture back in April, but showed no sign of missing Balls Paddock in their comfortable 2-0 win over Shell Cove at the WIN Stadium. Ben McDonald scored both goals that day, and although he has been overtaken this season by Dylan Lewis as Bulli’s top scorer, he will always be a threat in front of goal, if Shell Cove give him any space to go for the target.

Bulli’s other main weapon up front comes from the left wing. Julian Minutillo can create chances and score himself as he showed in getting Bulli’s goal in their draw with Wollongong Olympic last week.

The race for the title is hotting up now and Bulli will be wanting the three points to keep the pressure on Kemblawarra Fury.

For Shell Cove, the six points deduction means the rest of the season will be a fight for their Premier League survival. They have the squad to climb the table before the end of September, but I don’t think this is one of the games where they will come out with anything. My prediction: Bulli to win by two.

Wollongong Olympic v Cringila Lions @ PCYC – kick-off 2.30pm

This match could be a tale of two defences. Olympic have conceded only one goal a game on average over the 14 rounds so far, while Cringila’s defence has let in 51, with yet another heavy defeat last week at Albion Park.

With Jason Higgs leaving the club, new coach Milco Saveski will be looking to strengthen the defence as his first priority I am sure.

Yusuke Ueda will be the man to watch as he looks to add to his eight goal tally so far in the IPL this season.

The Lions play some attractive football, though, and if they have Daniel Atkins in the squad for this one, they can make it hard for Olympic.

Things are so close in the race for those top five finals slots that last week’s excellent draw for Olympic at Bulli was not enough to prevent them dropping to sixth. Cringila won the reverse fixture 1-0, but Olympic are surely going to be too good for them this time, and we may see a repeat of last season’s scoreline when Olympic ran out winners of this fixture by 3-0.

Albion Park White Eagles v Woonona FC @ Terry Reserve – kick-off 3.00pm

This is an intriguing tie between the team that caused one of the shocks of the season by beating the Fury last week, and a side pushing for a top five spot, with goal scoring talent across the squad.

Shohei Okuno is still the White Eagles’ biggest threat, with 10 IPL goals to his name after last week’s win. But look out for Riku Iwauchi and Kotaro Higashi, who have both notched hat-tricks this season already. Even defenders like Peter Prandalos can be a danger up front – another goal for him last week, too.

Woonona’s win over the Fury last week was a superb achievement, showing that defensively the Sharks have some bite and can keep out the IPL’s top scorers over 90 minutes.

Woonona lost the reverse fixture at Ocean Park 1-5, with Okuno getting a hat-trick on that occasion. Woonona are performing better than they were back in April, so I don’t expect such a big scoreline this time, but there could be a repeat of the 2015 result here, which was 2-0 for the White Eagles.

Other fixture on Sunday 3 July

South Coast United v Wollongong United @ Ian McLennan Park – kick-off 3.00pm

South Coast United is another side that has improved tremendously since the reverse fixture back in April. Wollongong United won that one 3-1, and they scored three against South Coast in the equivalent fixture last season as well.

Defence is the area where South Coast have tightened up the most in recent weeks so I’m not expecting Wollongong United to have such an easy run of it here, and they will need to be on their toes at the back themselves to keep out goal-hungry Liam Unicomb.

It was defender Ben Brooks who stepped forward to nick the winner for Wollongong United last week, and as I’ve said before in these reviews, Wollongong have potential goal scorers across the squad.

It won’t be easy at Ian McLennan Park, but I think Wollongong might come out of this one the stronger by a single goal.

By Simon Duffin

Photo: Pedro Garcia (library archive)