As the Illawarra Mercury Premier League turns into the home straight for the 2016 season, there’s still everything to play for at both ends of the ladder.

In the bottom half, it’s looking increasingly like a two horse race to avoid the bottom spot, with Shell Cove and Cringila Lions both losing again last week while rivals Port Kembla and South Coast United picked up useful points, and Woonona Sharks are still smiling after their Round 14 win over the Fury.

In the top half, Picton Rangers’ fine run has come to an end, with their second defeat in a row last weekend. Tarrawanna Blueys ran the Fury close last week but that 1-0 defeat sees them slip out of the top five again and they’ve played a game more than the others. Wollongong Olympic, meanwhile, transformed their goal difference tally with the 8-0 thrashing of Cringila and kept the leaders within their sights.

The season’s IPL races look like going to the wire as we head into Round 16.

Match of the round

Kemblawarra Fury v Albion Park White Eagles@ Albert Butler Memorial Park – kick-off 2.30pm, Sunday 10 July

These two top five sides played out a thriller at Terry Reserve back in Round 5. The Fury came out on top that day, but the 3-4 scoreline reflected how tight the game was between two of the IPL’s most entertaining teams.

The Fury are still the IPL’s top scorers in 2016 with 37 goals in their 15 games, but the White Eagles are flying close now with 35 goals from their 14 matches. And between the two of them, there are three strikers who are all capable of ending the season with the Golden Boot: Robbie Shields hit his 12^th of the season in last week’s win over the Blueys; his team mate Matthew McNab has nine to his name; and Albion Park’s Shohei Okuno nabbed another two last week, taking his tally to 12 also.

So the result here could well depend on the defensive talents of both sides. Watch for Alvin Ceccoli, who leads from the back but is as creative in attacking play as he is in marshalling the Fury’s back line. And keep an eye on Peter Prandalos, who is not afraid to put in tough tackles at the back but has been going forward this season and scored twice already himself.

My prediction: great entertainment for the neutral, but a Fury win by one.

 

Saturday 9 July

Bulli FC v Picton Rangers @ Balls Paddock – kick-off 2.30pm

Picton Rangers travel to Balls Paddock on Saturday in an effort to get their bid for a Finals berth back on track. The IPL’s surprise package in 2016, Picton have suddenly stumbled, and dropped out of the top five slots after two consecutive defeats.

A visit to Bulli is not what the Rangers would be looking for, as they seek to stay in touch with the teams above them. Goals have been hard to come by for the visitors recently, but they will need to find the net if they are to avoid defeat at Bulli, whose free-scoring talent was once again in evidence last weekend at Shell Cove.

Bulli’s victory in Round 15 ended a winless run of three games and kept them within sight of ladder leaders Kemblawarra Fury, so they’ll be looking to maintain their title challenge with three points in this one.

Defence has been Picton’s strong point this season: prior to their 2-0 defeat at home last week, they had conceded just one goal in four matches. Bulli’s frontline is a formidable force, though, with goals from the left (Julian Minutillo), the centre (Ben McDonald) and the right (Dylan Lewis).

I predict a home win by one or two, but it could be more if Bulli score early.

 

Cringila Lions v Shell Cove @ Crehan Park - kick-off 2.30pm

The IPL’s bottom two go toe-to-toe on Saturday at Crehan Park, knowing that defeat will make relegation a distinct danger as we come to the business end of this season.

Both sides are looking to end a poor run of form: Shell Cove have one point from their last four ties; while the Lions have gone down in their last seven matches, even a new coach not stopping the rot last weekend at Wollongong Olympic.

These are difficult times for both clubs, though both have individuals in their squads with the talent to win games single-handedly. Shell Cove need to watch out for Daniel Atkins, who has scored six for Cringila up front this season, and Mikal Awad who has created more goals than he has scored, but is a danger behind the front line.

For Shell Cove, Daniel Vellonio is top scorer with six, but Kurdvan Abduljabbar is another to watch, while Ljupco Naumovski is enjoying yet another competitive season at this level.

Cringila have to somehow stem the tidal wave of goals against them: 53 conceded this season, with 26 in the last four games. Shell Cove knocked five past the Lions in Round 5, but this may be Cringila’s best chance to restore some faith against another side whose confidence has been rocked of late.

I’m going for the draw in this one.

 

Woonona FC v Wollongong Olympic @ Ocean Park – kick-off 2.30pm

Woonona failed to follow up their famous victory over the ladder leaders when they fell to Albion Park last week, but by all accounts they ran the White Eagles close.

This is another stern test for the Sharks, though, as Woonona have the lowest number of goals scored in the IPL at 16 from their 15 starts, and they are up against the tightest defence in the league this weekend.

Woonona’s defence has improved in recent weeks, with only a goal a game conceded in their last three outings, but Olympic showed last week that they are capable of punishing a shaky back line with their 8-0 trouncing of Cringila.

Olympic are unbeaten now in eight IPL matches and it’s hard to see that run ending here, though we were saying the same prior to the Sharks’ win over the Fury a few weeks ago.

Yusuke Ueda is likely to be the biggest threat up front, with his goal tally now up to nine after last week’s goal against Cringila.

Prediction: away win, but it could be tight.

Tarrawanna Blueys v Wollongong United @ Tarrawanna Oval – kick-off 2.30pm

Sang Yu Park scored for Wollongong United in the equivalent fixture in 2015, which ended 1-1. He’s up against his former team-mates this time round, and he’s already shown his eye for the goal in the Blueys shirt recently.

As things stand, these two sit fifth (United) and sixth (Blueys) in the ladder, so a finals berth is still on for either or both of them, and this weekend’s match could have a bearing on how they both finish.

United will be looking to avenge a 3-0 defeat to the Blueys at Macedonia Park when the two sides met in Round 5. The Blueys have been much weaker at home than on their travels in 2016, but to counter that United have gained most of their points at home and have only won once away this season.

It’s a result that doesn’t really suit either side, but I’m going to sit firmly on the fence at Tarrawanna Oval and call this a draw.

 

Other fixtures on Sunday 10 July

South Coast United v Port Kembla @ Ian McLennan Park – kick-off 3.00pm

Two of the IPL’s most improved teams meet at Ian McLennan Park on Sunday. The reverse fixture in Round 5 marked the start of the turnaround in Port Kembla’s fortunes, with their 7-1 win over South Coast that weekend. United had to wait another week before their results began to improve.

If United win this one, they will leapfrog Port Kembla into eighth spot. It will be no easy task, though, with both sides coming into this tie on the back of good results last weekend (Port’s win at Picton, and South Coast’s excellent 3-3 draw with Wollongong United).

Key players to watch here: how Peter Richardson marshals his defence to keep out United’s Liam Unicomb; and player-coach Greg Valic, who also leads from the back as he tries to keep out the likes of Takao Teramoto, Joe Lavalle and Sandy Lowcock.

Prediction: another draw in what should be a very close game.

Round 11 catch-up

Picton Rangers v Shell Cove FC @ Hume Oval – kick-off 2.30pm

Since this game was washed out in early June, neither side has had the best of runs in the IPL.

Shell Cove will take heart from their excellent start at Port Kembla a couple of weeks ago. They let a two goal lead slip that day, but if they can start well at Hume Oval, I think they might hold on.

This will be a test of fitness and squad depth as it is the second run-out of the weekend for both sides.

Picton are a tough team to get past this season, but unlike last year in the District League, they are much stronger away from home than at Hume Oval. Shell Cove might just surprise the home side and they desperately need the points, so I’m going to stick my neck out here and go for an away win.

 

Story by Simon Duffin

Photo Courtesy of Pedro Garcia