Round 19 Preview

We enter the last four weeks of the regular season with everything to play for in the Illawarra Mercury Premier League. Virtually every club in the league still either has its sights on potential Finals slots or is looking over its shoulders at the threat from below.

The top two in the ladder both play on Saturday afternoon, while second from bottom Cringila has a day to mull over the result of its basement rivals Shell Cove before kick off on Sunday afternoon.

Match of the round

Wollongong Olympic v Tarrawanna Blueys @ PCYC, Wollongong – kick-off 2.30pm, Saturday 6 August

Last week’s Bert Bampton Cup winners Wollongong Olympic turn their attention back to the chase for Finals slots in the Premier League, but find themselves up against a Blueys side that will still have outside hopes of making the top five themselves.

The break in IPL action came at a good time for both teams. Olympic hold onto fifth spot in the ladder but have taken just one point from their last three outings. The Blueys will hope to have regrouped during the break so they can bounce back from four consecutive defeats going into this tie.

Defeat for Tarrawanna could well end their Finals hopes so the Blueys will come to the PCYC with their whole season at stake. The omens aren’t great for Peter Willis’s side, though as the Blueys lost both fixtures against Olympic last year by the same 3-2 margin, and lost the reverse tie back in May 1-0.

Brendan Fordham scored in the equivalent tie last year and showed his eye for goal again last weekend in the Bampton Cup Final. Yusuke Ueda scored the only goal of the game back in May and remains Olympic’s top scorer this season.

The Blueys have been missing Darren Stone for a few weeks. I predict an Olympic win by a single goal again.

Other matches on Saturday 6 August

Picton Rangers v Kemblawarra Fury @ Hume Oval – kick-off 2.30pm

Picton Rangers managed to halt a shaky run of form just before the Bampton Cup break. Two comfortable wins in a row in July brought them right back into contention for end—of-season Finals slots. Those last wins were against struggling sides, though, and this weekend’s opponents will surely be a much tougher test.

Robbie Shields notched a hat-trick for the Fury when the two sides met back in Round 8, and he is now one of three players lining up on 13 goals for the season looking to topple Ben McDonald from his Golden Boot spot.

The Fury won that reverse tie 4-1 and will be looking to consolidate their place on top of the ladder, especially with uncertainty still surrounding the final distribution of points after the Wollongong United points deduction appeal.

Woonona and Albion Park have both shown recently that the Fury are not unbeatable, and a year ago I would have fancied Picton to be challenging for the three points on their home ground of Hume Oval. The Rangers have fared better on the road than at home this season, though, so I’m going to predict an away win here this weekend.

Port Kembla FC v Bulli FC @ Wetherall Park - kick-off 2.30pm

This is my pick of the Round 19 games if you’re a neutral and want to see an entertaining game of football.

Port Kembla have put their dreadful start to the season behind them with three wins in their last four IPL matches. Bulli are unbeaten in six and are getting into the habit of scoring five goals a game – three times in their last four IPL games.

There’s an air of optimism around Wetherall Park at the moment, fuelled by those three wins against contenders for top five slots. Some even believe Port can be in the running for one of those Finals berths, though it’ll take an extraordinary run of results for them to achieve that.

Sandy Lowcock remains Port Kembla’s top scorer for the season, though he usually comes off the bench late on. Joe Lavalle is Port’s other main goal threat.

At the other end, Bulli’s front line is always a joy to watch, with Ben McDonald now back at his goal-scoring best and Dylan Lewis or Julian Minutillo down his flanks. Port also need to watch out for Guy Knight who scored the only goal in the Round 8 fixture and got the winner in the equivalent game in 2015.

 

Shell Cove FC v Albion Park White Eagles @ Barrack Heights Sportsfield, kick-off 2.30pm

On recent form, there’s only one winner of this game, but the IPL has thrown up its fair share of surprises in 2016, so nothing is guaranteed, and even the best teams have an off day now and then.

The White Eagles go into this tie on the back of seven wins from eight Premier League starts. Three of those came against top five rivals for Finals slots, but there’s no let-up either against the struggling sides, if their 6-0 defeat of Cringila is anything to go by.

Albion Park’s three Japanese recruits, Kotaro Higashi, Shohei Okuno and Riku Iwauchi were all on the scoresheet when the White Eagles won the reverse tie 5-1 back in May. They will always be a threat. But Shell Cove still have to watch out for older hands like Jack Balmforth and Brian Montanari, even if they come on late as subs. These two scored two apiece in the 2-6 Albion Park win in the equivalent fixture in 2015.

That 2015 match was Shell Cove’s first in the IPL after coming up from the District League. They have improved tenfold since then and are still playing some good football in spite of results not going their way of late.

Shell Cove have not won since May and it will be a big shock if they break that poor run this weekend. Kurdvan Abduljabbar is their main threat up front; he scored their consolation goal in that 5-1 defeat in Round 8.

Away win surely.

Matches on Sunday 7 August

Wollongong United v Cringila Lions FC @ Macedonia Park – kick-off 2.30pm

When Cringila Lions won the reverse fixture 4-3 in Round 8, it caused one of the shocks of the season in the 2016 IPL. That was the highlight of the Lions’ season in an extraordinary game that saw six goals go in over the last 20 minutes of the match.

The Lions drew their last match to end a run of eight consecutive defeats.

They also seem to have tidied up the holes that were leaking goals in their defence. After six matches conceding five goals or more, the Lions have steadied the ship in recent weeks.

They come up against a Wollongong United side looking to venge that shock result earlier in the season. United have also stumbled of late, losing the last two IPL fixtures and suffering heartbreak last weekend, losing on penalties to Olympic in the Bampton Cup Final.

On the other hand, United are the only team to beat the high-flying White Eagles recently, and they have been missing a whole raft of regulars through injury or absence.

Ben Brooks remains United’s top scorer in 2016. He and last week’s Cup Final scorer Klime Sekutkoski both scored in the 4-3 thriller in Round 8, so will likely be the ones to watch for the Lions.

Prediction: Win for United.

South Coast United v Woonona FC @ Ian McLennan Park – kick-off 2.30pm

Unbeaten in five matches and seeking mid-table respectability, South Coast United must fancy their chances against a Woonona side whose season never really took off in the way they hoped back in February.

The Sharks’ victories over Kemblawarra Fury and Shell Cove got them off the bottom of the ladder, but they just can’t seem to string a couple of results together to lift them any higher than 10^th.

Caleb Russell is now the Sharks’ top scorer, but with only four goals to his name. South Coast would also do well to watch Valentino Merxhushi, who scored in the equivalent fixture in 2015.

The last two IPL matches between these two have ended 3-1 in United’s favour. Liam Unicomb scored in both those ties and it’s quite possible that that could be the result again this weekend, with Unicomb looking to add to his nine goal tally.

 

By Simon Duffin

Photo Courtesy of Pedro Garcia (File Photo)