Round 20 Preview

Last week’s wet weather did less damage to the IPL fixture list than was feared at first. After Thursday night’s showdown between the bottom two clubs, there will only be one more catch-up game to reschedule during the final three weeks of the regular season.

The results from Round 19 probably settled the season for a couple of other clubs who had either been worrying about relegation or still dreaming of finals slots. But there are still a lot of clubs left with something to play for. Every fixture in Round 20 includes at least one side with ongoing relegation concerns or finals hopes.

We are also back at the WIN Stadium for some curtain raising action ahead of the next Wollongong Wolves tie. Watch out for the kick-off time, though: it’s at the earlier time of 11am on Sunday.

Match of the round

Albion Park White Eagles v Picton Rangers @ WIN Stadium – kick-off 11.00am, Sunday 14 August

The White Eagles have been playing some stylish football in recent weeks, with results to match, so it will be interesting to see how they adapt to the wide space of the WIN Stadium’s pitch. This is Picton’s third match at the WIN, and they’ve enjoyed themselves on both previous occasions doing the double over Cringila, so we know they can play there.

There’s a lot to play for here, too. The White Eagles look a pretty safe bet for a Finals berth, but they’ll be looking to stay in the top three to ensure two bites of the cherry once the Finals matches get underway. Picton sit in sixth spot, but that could become fifth if the Wollongong United points deduction goes ahead; but even then they might need the points if United go on a late run upto Round 22.

The White Eagles’ Japanese trio are certainly ones to watch for Picton, but there is talent across Jeff Allport’s side this season and they may well end up as the IPL’s top scorers by the season’s end.

Picton’s only points of late have come from ties against some of the IPL’s struggling clubs. The White Eagles came back from 2-0 down at Hume Oval to take a point in the reverse fixture, so even if Picton get a good start at the WIN Stadium, I’d go for Albion Park to take the three points. Picton lost 0-3 to the Fury last weekend and I fancy they could be on the wrong end of a similar scoreline in this one.

Matches on Saturday 13 August

Cringila Lions v Port Kembla @ Crehan Park – kick-off 2.30pm

Port Kembla’s draw with Bulli last week was a good result, but those dropped points basically put to bed any lingering hopes of a last-minute dash for Finals football for Stuart Beedie’s side. This preview is being written before Cringila’s crunch tie with Shell Cove on Thursday night. Win that and the Lions will be five points clear of the bottom, with the pressure off for this Round 20 tie, but lose or draw and Cringila will still be desperate for the points against Port.

Cringila’s new coach may well have steadied the ship in recent weeks but their defensive frailties earlier in the season have left them very vulnerable with a negative goal difference of 46. It’s not the best time to come up against one of the IPL’s most improved sides of late. Port have lost only one in seven and won the reverse fixture 6-1.

Sandy Lowcock netted a second hat-trick of the season in that tie in Round 9.He’s not been scoring so freely lately but he’d love to come off the bench and cause some more damage this weekend, I’m sure.

Joel Craig’s return to the Lions’ side will boost the home side, but I still think they won’t manage more than a draw here, meaning the race to avoid bottom spot will go on for another week at least.

Tarrawanna Blueys v Bulli FC @ Tarrawanna Oval - kick-off 2.30pm

The omens are not good for Tarrawanna in this local derby for the north of the Illawarra.

The Blueys fell to their fifth successive defeat last week, virtually putting paid to any hopes they may have held for Finals football in 2016. They lost the reverse fixture at Balls Paddock 4-1 and they crumbled 0-5 in the equivalent fixture at home to Bulli in 2015.

Bulli’s front three of Ben McDonald, Julian Minutillo and Dylan Lewis all scored in both those last two meetings between these two sides. So the Blueys back line can expect another onslaught in this tie as Bulli fight for the points to keep up with league leaders Fury.

On the positive side for Peter Willis’s side, the Blueys looked the better side for much of last Saturday’s match at Olympic, and if Rick Goodchild is back to pair up with Darren Stone, we may see a return to some of the flair Tarrawanna were showing earlier in the season.

The problem is, Bulli have both the best attack (in goals scored) and the most solid defence (goals conceded), and they need three points in every game to keep the fight for the IPL title alive. This will be tight, but I’m tipping Bulli to take the points by a single goal.

 

Wollongong Olympic v Shell Cove FC @ PCYC, Wollongong kick-off 2.30pm

Wollongong Olympic’s last gasp win over Tarrawanna last weekend virtually guarantees the Bampton Cup winners a play for more silverware in the IPL Finals. They may even fancy their chances of a top three spot, though, so I expect them to remain competitive through the last three rounds of regular season football.

That’s bad news for Shell Cove, who have seen a promising season fall apart around them. Points deductions and a drop in form saw Shell Cove slip to bottom of the ladder, two points adrift of Cringila Lions ahead of Thursday night’s showdown.

Shell Cove are capable of good football, and will be hoping for a repeat of last season’s 2-1 in the equivalent fixture, but a lot depends on Thursday’s match against Cringila to assess the morale in the Shell Cove camp.

Win or draw on Thursday and Shell Cove may have the fight in them to get a result here. But Olympic are a tough team to score against this year and it’s hard to see where Shell Cove goals may come from.

Ja Kon Yu scored the only goal when Olympic won the reverse tie in Round 9. I fancy Olympic to take this one by a similar scoreline.

Woonona FC v Wollongong United @ Ocean Park – kick-off 2.30pm

Woonona may well have made sure they’ll be playing Premier League football again next season after their Round 19 win over South Coast. They now sit eight points off the bottom (ahead of Thursday night’s game)

For United, there is still everything to play for, even if they lose their appeal against the points deduction. A successful run-in by Oliver Vrtkovski’s side may well see them slip into the Finals if Picton start to fade in the final rounds.

Ben Brooks is always dangerous at the set pieces and remains United’s top scorer, though it’s Karouna Michael who seems to enjoy scoring against Woonona: he got the only goal in the reverse fixture in Round 9 and scored last season when these two fought out a 2-2 draw at Ocean Park.

Trent Worthington scored two for the Sharks when they beat Shell Cove a few weeks ago, and Josh Hutton scored the only goal against South Coast last week. But I struggle to see a way through Brendan Reilly and his United back four for the Woonona front line, so I’m going for the away win here, by a two goal margin.

Other match on Sunday 14 August

Kemblawarra Fury v South Coast United @ Albert Butler Memorial Park – kick-off 2.30pm

South Coast United recorded one of the shocks of the 2016 season when they beat the Fury 3-1 in the reverse fixture. Oliver Carrasco scored a brace that day and United top scorer Liam Unicomb got the other one.

But now we are at the business end of the season and Fury arguably need the points more than South Coast, this is surely a home win banker. Sang Ho Lee scored the Fury’s only goal in that Round 9 defeat, but I’d expect to see Robbie Shields on the scoresheet in this one, as he tries to wrestle the Golden Boot off Bulli’s Ben McDonald.

Greg Valic has done a great job turning South Coast’s season around and has bolstered the United defence himself on the field. Whether the knock he picked up last weekend prevents him playing on Sunday could be a vital factor in the final scoreline of this tie.

I’m going for Fury to venge that Round 9 defeat in any case, and maintain their grip on the IPL title race.

By Simon Duffin

Photo courtesy of Pedro Garcia