Elimination and Qualifying Finals Previews

Elimination Finals

AnchorAnchorWOMEN 6:30 PM | SATURDAY 9 AUGUST | MARION
OFFICIALS: MICHELLE DYSON & ADAM GILLINGS
Anchor


South Adelaide (13-5) V Forestville (10-8)

THE STORY SO FAR

South:             
The Panthers have looked certainties to feature in the postseason since opening their account with a 3-0 record. Some struggles at home saw them slip down the ladder in no time at all. They have sat fourth virtually since Round 9, although they blew an opportunity to leap into the top three when they lost to North in Round 17.

Eagles:             
The Eagles are the one team in the top five who have looked a chance of missing out. Their fate was not 100 per cent sealed until the end of the regular season. Until last week, they had not beaten a team above them.

KEY STATISTICAL PERFORMERS

Scorers           
South:             
Janae Howard 22.2 ppg; Ashleigh Spencer 18.6 ppg
Forestville:      Jade Johnson 16.1 ppg; Jess Fergus 13.8 ppg

Rebounders
South:             Janae Howard 9.6 rpg; Hajnal Nagy 8.0 rpg
Forestville:      Carla Borrego Williams 10.3 rpg; Tara Robinson 7.2 rpg

Assisters        
South:             Jessica Mahony 9.0 apg; Karen Rokicinski 2.2
Forestville:      Jade Johnson 2.3 apg; Jess Fergus 2.2 apg

X-FACTOR
South:             
Teresa Kinross. Kinross led the Panthers in total points scored in 2013, but despite being fourth in team scoring this season, she actually improved her average. She has had games of 30 points on 13-18 shooting, and 13 points on 4-5 shooting, against the Eagles this season. With Janae Howard, Jessica Mahony and Ashleigh Spencer demanding attention, the Eagles have to be careful to not allow Kinross to sneak under their guard again, or they will suffer the consequences.

Forestville:     
Carla Borrego Williams. The Panthers had their way with the Eagles in both regular season games, but did not have to face the size and strength of Carla Borrego Williams. Borrego Williams registered six double-doubles, despite playing 17 minutes or more in only eight matches this season. She will no doubt be a presence inside, but how much she makes of her presence (50% FG, 47.4% FT) could have a large impact on the final outcome.

HEAD-TO-HEAD
Round 1:         South 82 def Forestville 62 @ Wayville
Round 12:       South 97 def Forestville 83 @ Marion

VERDICT
The Eagles had trouble sticking with the Panthers in both regular season games. Borrego Williams gives them something extra, and Jess Fergus’ competitiveness cancels out her namesake Mahony’s will to win, but there is a reason the Panthers put up three more wins this year. The Panthers should have too much firepower on offence.

PREDICTION
Panthers by 8 

 

 

    

MEN 7:00 PM | SATURDAY 9 AUGUST  | PORT ADELAIDE
OFFICIALS: 
ANDREW FILMER & JAMES GRIGUOL


West Adelaide (11-7) V Forestville (11-7)

THE STORY SO FAR

West:              
The Bearcats were the league’s early pace setters, winning four of their first five games and ending the first two months of the season with a 6-2 record. However, they lost form during the second half of the season, and after Round 15, their spot in the top five was on the line. A big win over Sturt the following week proved crucial. The Bearcats won only five of their last 10 games, and now face a home Elimination Final for the third time in four seasons.

Eagles:             
The Eagles lost a lot of close games in the first half of the season. Their low point came against South in Round 10, when they were on the wrong end of a 50 point turnaround in a 14 point defeat. That loss worsened their record to 4-6 and their chances of a fourth successive premiership appeared less than slim. The following week, Adam Gibson and Brad Haydon made their season debuts and the Eagles beat Centrals. The Eagles then carried on in the right direction, with their only loss in the final two months against Norwood in overtime.

KEY STATISTICAL PERFORMERS

Scorers          
West:              
Jason Dawson 19.9 ppg; Blake Truslove 13.5 ppg
Forestville:      Jake Rios 24.9 ppg; Trent Fildes 18.9 ppg

Rebounders   
West:              Daniel Johnson 18.0 rpg; Blake Truslove 12.8 rpg
Forestville:      Trent Fildes 8.1 rpg; Brad Gerlach 7.5 rpg

Assisters         
West:              Anthony Spadavecchia 4.5 apg; Jason Dawson 4.0 apg
Forestville:    Brad Gerlach 4.8 apg; Adam Gibson 4.2 apg

X-FACTOR

West:              
Tristan Braithwaite. Braithwaite is averaging 12.8 ppg this season, yet he has not had a game this season where he has scored between 10 and 14 points. He has had seven single digit scoring games, but also had six matches of 15 or more points. There are no average games for Braithwaite, just massive or minor, and whether he is on or off could go a long way to deciding the outcome of this final.

Forestville:     
Neil Mottram. Mottram’s stat-line is not eye-catching (9.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 8 matches), but the former 36er is a quality veteran who can produced when called upon, particularly in the 2011 Grand Final when he helped keep his team in the game with solid play at both ends of the court. That final quarter explosion, and subsequent three-peat, would not have been possible without him. West’s Blake Truslove has dominated the Eagles this season, but Mottram has not played in either meeting and could be the man to keep him honest this time.

HEAD-TO-HEAD
Round 4:         West 88 def Forestville 82 (OT) @ Wayville
Round 12:       Forestville 64 def West 63 @ Port Adelaide

VERDICT          
Matches between these sides are typically low-scoring and close. The difference between these sides in the postseason in recent years has been one side – the Eagles - have taken their opportunities, the other – the Bearcats - have not. History is certainly with the Eagles.

PREDICTION    
Eagles by 5

 

QUALIFYING FINALS

WOMEN 6:30PM | SATURDAY 9 AUGUST | PASADENA 
OFFICIALS NIKKI IRELAND & IAN DOMEIKA

 

Sturt (15-3) V North Adelaide (13-15)

THE STORY SO FAR

Sturt:              
The Sabres got off to a slow start, winning only one of their first three games. Then the arrival of Natalie Novosel proved a catalyst for the Sabres becoming the league’s hottest team. No side won more games than the Sabres did over the final 15 rounds of the season. The Sabres enter their Qualifying Final on the back of 11 straight victories.

North:             
The Rockets started in blistering touch and were 8-1 at half-time of the regular season. Some poor home form saw the Rockets fall off the pace for the Minor Premiership, and they had to beat the Panthers in Round 17 just to avoid facing a cut-throat Elimination Final. The Rockets have only won five of their last nine games heading into this contest.

KEY STATISTICAL PERFORMERS

Scorers      
Sturt:              
Natalie Novosel 18.6 ppg; Hannah Richards 14.7 ppg
North:             Jo Hill 16.9 ppg; Jamie-Lee Peris 12.2 ppg

Rebounders
Sturt:              Hannah Richards 8.6 rpg; Natalie Novosel 8.0 rpg
North:             Jamie-Lee Peris 10.8 rpg; Jo Hill 10.1 rpg

Assisters         
Sturt:              Natalie Novosel 3.9 apg; Kara Hargreaves 3.5 apg
North:             Jo Hill 3.1 apg; Shannon McKay 2.9 apg
 
X-FACTOR
Sturt:              
Lucy Spalding. Spalding’s someone who does a little bit of everything for the Sabres. She has been consistent scoring-wise, reaching double figures in all but four games, yet never cracking the 20 point mark. With Natalie Novosel and Hannah Richards drawing most of the attention, Spalding has the chance to impact this game.

North:            
Shannon McKay. Three-point shooting can often prove a difference maker, and McKay’s made almost twice as many three-pointers this season as anyone else on either roster. She’s bound to get some open looks, with the Sabres looking to key in on stars Jo Hill and Jamie-Lee Peris. If McKay can hit some shots from the outside, the Rockets will have a huge advantage.

HEAD-TO-HEAD
Round 3:         North 71 def Sturt 45 @ Pasadena
Round 12:       Sturt 77 def North 60 @ Hillcrest

VERDICT
The last time they met, the Sabres won by 17 – maybe this is an indication of the difference between the two sides? That said, the Rockets have won their last two at Pasadena by an average of 21 points, including the 2013 Preliminary Final. Both teams have reason to be confident of succeeding.

PREDICTION
Sabres by 7

 

 

MEN  7:00PM | SATURDAY 9 AUGUST | MARS
OFFICIALS: NATHAN WIELAND & MARK HARRIS


Norwood (14-4) v Central Districts (12-6) 

THE STORY SO FAR

Norwood:       
A second straight season without finals looked a strong possibility for the Flames after the first five rounds. The Flames lost their opening two games and started just 2-3. A four point win over an in-form South Adelaide team in Round 6 was the turning point, as the Flames went on to win 11 consecutive games. The Flames have won 12 of 13 heading into this week’s Qualifying Final.

Centrals:         
Aside from a 20 point win over reigning premiers Forestville, it was a dour first month for the Lions. At half-time of Round 5 against Eastern, they trailed by nine points and were staring down the barrel of a 1-4 start. However, the Lions produced a scintillating 64 point second half, igniting a six game winning streak that had them equal first after Round 10. Three losses in a row had the Lions’ season on ice once more, but they again responded in the best possible fashion, winning their last five games.

KEY STATISTICAL PERFORMERS

Scorers          
Norwood:       
Matthew Lycett 18.4 ppg; Ian O’Boyle 11.9 ppg
Centrals:         Kyle Miller 18.6 ppg; Christopher Clausen 16.3 ppg

Rebounders  
Norwood:       Matthew Lycett 9.6 rpg; Keith Krause 6.1 rpg
Centrals:         Paul Joyce 9.7 rpg; Christopher Clausen 8.3 rpg

Assisters        
Norwood:       Andrew Webber 3.9 apg; Todd Matthews 3.6 apg
Centrals:         Kyle Miller 5.9 apg; Jordan Centenera 2.5 apg
 
X-FACTOR
Norwood:       
Andrew Webber. Webber has had an inconsistent season in terms of shooting and scoring, but has a habit of rising to the big occasion, most notably with his half court prayer that won the Flames the 08 Flag, and the three FTs that saved their 09 season. If the Lions do not watch him closely, Webber is the sort of player who could take the game away from them.

Centrals:        
Matthew Atkins. Atkins is shooting 41.7% on three-pointers this season. If he can knock down some treys, then the whole court will open up for Kyle Miller and Christopher Clausen.

HEAD-TO-HEAD
Round 3:         Norwood 96 def Centrals 79 @ Starplex
Round 12:       Norwood 74 def Centrals 51 @ Mars

VERDICT          
Tough to pick against the Flames after two comprehensive double digit wins against the Lions in the regular season.

PREDICTION   
Flames by 12.

 




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