Men's Playoff Analysis
By Brad French

With one round to go in the Men's SBL, it has been one of the closest finishes to a season that I have witnessed in my 25 years involved in the league.

Nine teams are vying for the final 8 playoff spots, with six of those teams guaranteed of a quarter finals appearance. As it stands at the moment, the Mandurah Magic are the unlucky team in 9th position. But one thing in their favour is that they are the only top-9 team with two games to play - all the others only have one game left.

Want to know where your team will finish, or who they will meet in the quarter finals? Then read on.....

A Brief Summary to Begin With:

- The Buccs are guaranteed to finish 1st.

- The Flames are guaranteed to finish 2nd.

- The Redbacks can only finish 3rd, 4th or 5th.

- The Lightning, Senators and (surprisingly) Magic are the only other teams that can finish in the top-4.

- Only the Wolves, Slammers and Magic can finish 9th. All the other teams currently in the top-9 are guaranteed a playoff spot and cannot drop out of the top-8.

- Only the Wolves, Eagles, Slammers or Magic can have a possible quarter final meeting with the top-of-the-table Buccaneers. The other teams will avoid the Buccs in the quarters.

What Teams Can Finish In Each Position:

1st - Only the Buccs

2nd - Only the Flames

3rd - Redbacks, Lightning or Senators

4th - Redbacks, Lightning, Senators or Magic

5th - Redbacks, Lightning, Senators, Wolves, Eagles, Slammers or Magic

6th - Lightning, Senators, Wolves, Eagles, Slammers or Magic

7th - Lightning, Senators, Wolves, Eagles, Slammers or Magic

8th - Wolves, Eagles, Slammers or Magic

9th - Wolves, Slammers or Magic

Let's now look at each club...

Geraldton Buccaneers

Currently:  1st  (18-7 win/loss)

Where can they finish:  1st

Games left:  Home to Kalamunda Eastern Suns (6-19, 13th), Saturday 26th July

Summary:

The Buccs are one game clear of Rockingham in the battle for top spot. However the Buccs have the head-to-head over the Flames (1-1, +10) so they are guaranteed 1st spot and the minor premiership.

 

Rockingham Flames

Currently:  2nd  (17-8 win/loss)

Where can they finish:  2nd

Games left:  Away at Stirling Senators (15-10, 5th), Friday 25th July

Summary:

The Flames are one game behind Geraldton in the battle for top spot, and are one game clear of the 3rd-placed Redbacks. However the Buccs have the head-to-head over the Flames (1-1, +10) and the Flames have the head-to-head over the Redbacks (1-1, +11), so the Flames are guaranteed 2nd spot and cannot move from that position.

 

Perth Redbacks

Currently:  3rd  (16-9 win/loss)

Where can they finish:  3rd, 4th or 5th

Games Left:  Away at Willetton Tigers (8-16, 12th), Saturday 26th July

Summary:

What we do know is that the Redbacks cannot finish any higher than their current 3rd placing. And because they are a game clear of the 4th-placed Lightning and the 5th-placed Senators, they will stay 3rd if they beat the Tigers on Saturday night. They will also know before tip-off what is required as both the Lightning and Senators play the night before. By then they will understand that if they lose to the Tigers, they could drop as low as 5th. This is because they have not beaten the Lightning or Senators at all this season, so both those teams hold the head-to-head over the Redbacks. Here is a mini-summary for the Redbacks if they LOSE to Willetton:

(a) Lightning lose, Stirling lose - Redbacks finish 3rd

(b) Lightning lose, Stirling win - Redbacks finish 4th (Senators finish 3rd)

(c) Lightning win, Stirling lose - Redbacks finish 4th (Lightning finish 3rd)

(d) Lightning win, Stirling win - Redbacks finish 5th (Lightning 3rd, Senators 4th)

 

Lakeside Lightning

Currently:  4th  (15-10 win/loss)

Where can they finish:  3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th

Games Left:  Home to Joondalup Wolves (14-11, 6th), Friday 25th July

Summary:

The equation is quite simple for Lakeside: If they beat the Wolves on Friday night they will finish 3rd or 4th. If they lose to the Wolves they will drop out of the top-4 and finish 5th, 6th or 7th.

(a) If they beat the Wolves:

- They will finish 3rd if the Redbacks lose to Willetton.

- They will finish 4th if the Redbacks beat Willetton.

(b) If they lose to the Wolves:

There are too many scenarios to list here, but what is certain is that they can only finish 5th, 6th or 7th with a loss to Joondalup which would mean a quarter final match-up against the Flames, Redbacks or Senators.

 

Stirling Senators

Currently:  5th  (15-10 win/loss)

Where can they finish:  3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th

Games Left:  Home to Rockingham Flames (17-8, 2nd), Friday 25th July

Summary:

The Senators will finish 3rd, 4th or 5th with a win over Rockingham on Friday night. If they lose to the Flames they will finish 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th.

(a) If they beat the Flames:

- They will finish 3rd if both the Redbacks and Lightning lose.

- They will finish 4th if the Redbacks win and the Lightning lose.

- They will finish 4th if the Lightning win and the Redbacks lose.

- They will finish 5th if both the Redbacks and Lightning win.

(b) If they lose to the Flames:

- Surprisingly they can actually move up to 4th if the Lightning also lose and the Magic only win one of their last two games or lose both.

- Other than that, a loss to the Flames will mean a 5th, 6th or 7th finish for Stirling and a quarter final match-up against the Flames, Redbacks or Lightning.

 

Joondalup Wolves

Currently:  6th  (14-11 win/loss)

Where can they finish:  5th, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th

Games Left:  Away at Lakeside Lightning (15-10, 4th), Friday 25th July

Summary:

The equation is also simple for the Wolves: Beat Lakeside on Friday night and they are guaranteed a playoff spot and will finish anywhere from 5th to 8th. A loss to the Lightning can only mean a 7th, 8th or 9th finish, and possibly missing the playoffs altogether. If they lose on Friday night, they will be keeping a close eye on the Slammers vs Magic game and the Cougars vs Eagles game (both on Saturday night), as the result of those two games will decide their playoff fate.

(a) If they beat Lakeside:

- Too many scenarios here but 5th or 6th is the most likely result. However 7th or 8th would still be a possibility if other results don't go their way.

(b) If they lose to Lakeside, the only way they can finish 9th is:

- If the Magic win both games or...

- If the Magic beat the Slammers and the Eagles beat the Cougars.

 

East Perth Eagles

Currently:  7th  (14-11 win/loss)

Where can they finish:  5th, 6th, 7th, or 8th

Games Left:  Away at Cockburn Cougars (9-16, 11th), Saturday 26th July

Summary:

Due to some favourable head-to-heads, the Eagles are guaranteed a playoff spot and can finish anywhere from 5th to 8th.

(a) If they beat the Cougars:

- They will finish 5th or 6th if the Slammers beat the Magic.

- They will finish 6th, 7th or 8th if the Magic beat the Slammers.

(b) If they lose to the Cougars:

- They will finish 6th, 7th or 8th.

 

South West Slammers

Currently:  8th  (14-11 win/loss)

Where can they finish:  5th, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th

Games Left:  Home to Mandurah Magic (13-11, 9th), Saturday 26th July

Summary:

The Slammers' situation is very similar to the Wolves - Beat Mandurah on Saturday night and they are guaranteed a playoff spot. Lose to the Magic and they can only then finish 8th or 9th, and possibly miss the playoffs.

(a) If they beat the Magic:

- They will finish 5th if the Wolves beat the Lightning and the Cougars beat the Eagles.

- They will finish 6th if the Lightning beat the Wolves and the Cougars beat the Eagles.

- They will finish 7th If the Lightning beat the Wolves and the Eagles beat the Cougars.

- They will finish 7th If the Wolves beat the Lightning, the Flames beat the Senators, and the Eagles beat the Cougars.

- They will finish 8th If the Wolves beat the Lightning, the Senators beat the Flames, and the Eagles beat the Cougars.

(b) If they lose to the Magic:

- They will finish 8th if the Lighting beat the Wolves and the Eagles beat the Cougars.

- They will finish 8th if the Lighting beat the Wolves and the Magic beat the Tigers.

- They will finish 9th if the Wolves beat the Lightning.

- They will finish 9th if the Lightning beat the Wolves, the Tigers beat the Magic, and the Cougars beat the Eagles.

 

Mandurah Magic

Currently:  9th  (13-11 win/loss)

Where can they finish:  4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th

Games Left:  Home to Willetton Tigers (8-16, 12th), Friday 25th July, and away at South West Slammers (14-11, 8th), Saturday 26th July

Summary:

Even though they have two games left, the playoff scenario for the Magic is quite simple: If they lose to the Slammers on Saturday, they will finish 9th and miss the playoffs. If they beat the Slammers they will make the playoffs and could finish anywhere from 4th to 8th. The result of the Magic vs Tigers game on Friday night becomes irrelevant if the Magic lose to the Slammers.

(a) If the Magic win both games:

- They will finish 4th if the Wolves beat the Lightning and the Flames beat the Senators.

- They will finish 5th if the Lightning beat the Wolves and the Flames beat the Senators.

- They will finish 6th if the Wolves beat the Lightning and the Senators beat the Flames.

- They will finish 6th if the Lightning beat the Wolves, the Senators beat the Flames, and the Cougars beat the Eagles.

- They will finish 7th if the Lightning beat the Wolves, the Senators beat the Flames, and the Eagles beat the Cougars.

(b) If they beat the Slammers but lose to the Tigers:

- They will finish 7th if the Lightning beat the Wolves.

- They will finish 8th if the Wolves beat the Lightning.

(c) If they lose to the Slammers (Magic vs Tigers game becomes irrelevant):

- They will finish 9th and miss the playoffs.

 

 

To conclude, what about some hypotheticals:

 

(a) If results went the way of current ladder positions:

1. Buccaneers 19-7

2. Flames 18-8

3. Redbacks 17-9

4. Lightning 16-10

5. Eagles 15-11

6. Senators 15-11

7. Slammers 15-11

8. Wolves 14-12

9. Magic 14-12

 

(b) If results went the same way as the previous meeting between the two teams:

1. Buccaneers 19-7

2. Flames 18-8

3. Redbacks 17-9

4. Senators 15-11

5. Wolves 15-11

6. Lightning 15-11

7. Eagles 14-12

8. Magic 14-12

9. Slammers 14-12

 

(c) If results went the way of current form:

1. Buccaneers 19-7

2. Flames 17-9

3. Redbacks 17-9

4. Senators 16-10

5. Wolves 15-11

6. Eagles 15-11

7. Lightning 15-11

8. Slammers 15-11

9. Magic 14-12

Article by Brad French

Photo by Grant Lauterbach