Each week when I look at the fixtures, I always have the ‘double-header’ factor in the back of my mind. For some reason I tend to pick or favour teams that I perceive to be more ‘fresh’ i.e. not playing previously that weekend.

 

This theory had me thinking, is it a hindrance for clubs to play double headers? I was convinced without looking at the stats or results that teams would struggle from a win-loss standpoint having had to play twice over a weekend.

 

I decided to delve into the results after Week 17 of the MSBL season.

What I found surprised me.

 

Before I provide readers with an onslaught of tables and stats I need to make one point clear. Every MSBL team have six double-headers over the course of the 2016 season. However I was still interested in how many teams have had to play a greater amount of true ‘back to back’ double headers, i.e. on a Friday/Saturday night or a Saturday/Sunday afternoon.

 

The following is my summary of the MSBL double- header fixtures for 2016:

 

 

The following is a table with each teams double-header record through Week 17:

 

TEAM	DOUBLE HEADER WEEKEND (W-L)	WIN %
COCKBURN	8-2	80%
JOONDALUP STIRLING	9-3	75%
PERTH	6-2	75%
WILLETTON	6-4	60%
PERRY LAKES	6-6	50%
ROCKINGHAM	5-5	50%
EAST PERTH GERALDTON	5-7	42%
KALAMUNDA LAKESIDE	4-6	40%
GOLDFIELDS MANDURAH SOUTH WEST	3-7	30%

 

This table further displays each club’s record for the first and second games of double-header weekends:

 

TEAM	1ST GAME OF A DOUBLE HEADER	WIN %	2ND GAME OF A DOUBLE HEADER	WIN %
COCKBURN	3-2	60%	5-0	100%
JOONDALUP	4-2	66%	5-1	83%
STIRLING	5-1	83%	4-2	66%
PERTH	4-0	100%	2-2	50%
WILLETTON	3-2	60%	3-2	60%
PERRY LAKES	3-3	50%	3-3	50%
ROCKINGHAM	2-3	40%	3-2	60%
EAST PERTH	1-5	17%	4-2	66%
GERALDTON	2-4	33%	3-3	50%
KALAMUNDA	1-4	20%	3-2	60%
LAKESIDE	3-2	60%	1-4	20%
GOLDFIELDS	1-4	20%	2-3	40%
MANDURAH	2-3	40%	1-4	20%
SOUTH WEST	1-4	20%	2-3	40%

 

These results surprised me to say the least!

 

The win percentage of teams that have played the first leg of a double header is significantly lower than teams that have played the second game of a double-header:

 

First game combined record: 35-39 (47.2%)

 

Second game combined record: 41-33 (55.4%)

 

Teams such as Cockburn, Joondalup, East Perth and Kalamunda have had clearly better results playing their second game of a double- header, compared to their record of playing the first game.

 

To expand further, here is each teams win percentage of just the second leg of back-to-back games:

 

TEAM	2ND GAME IN 2 DAYS	WIN%
COCKBURN	4-0	100%
JOONDALUP	5-1	83%
STIRLING	4-2	66%
PERTH	2-2	50%
WILLETTON	2-2	50%
PERRY LAKES	0-2	0%
ROCKINGHAM	2-1	66%
EAST PERTH	2-1	66%
GERALDTON	3-3	50%
KALAMUNDA	3-1	75%
LAKESIDE	1-1	50%
GOLDFIELDS	2-3	40%
MANDURAH	1-2	33%
SOUTH WEST	2-3	40%

 

* Second game of a back-to-back weekend combined record: 33-24 (57.8% winning percentage)

 

Statistically so far this season, teams have won a greater percentage of games on the back end of a consecutive double-header than playing the first!

 

What does this mean?

 

Depends how you want to interpret the numbers!

 

Many factors that I have not considered are the records of teams that have both come off a game the night before, the the talent level or standard of opposition, injuries or player availability. However these results have made me change the way I personally view matchups on a weekly basis.

 

The big number that sticks out is from the Kalamunda Eastern Suns. My previous method of thinking would have them to lose more games on the second night/day of consecutive games, largely due to their high tempo style of play. However, the data has them winning 75% of their back-to-back games on the second night so far in 2016!

 

There are numerous comparisons still to be made with the data and I look forward to hearing any alternative interpretations from SBL fans.

 

I am excited to see what happens over the concluding weeks of what has been an outstanding regular season. In my opinion, there are still a handful of teams that could cut down the nets at the end of the year. Best of luck to all of the teams!

 
Article by Matt Cecins
Photo by Mick Cronin

"The opinions shared in this article are mine, and not necessarily the views shared by the SBL".

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